سنجش میزان تابآوری و چگونگی توزیع آن در محلات شهر تهران | ||
| صفه | ||
| مقاله 6، دوره 30، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 89، 1399، صفحه 91-110 اصل مقاله (5.5 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.29252/soffeh.30.2.91 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| محمدحسین شریفزادگان* ؛ راضیه رمضانی | ||
| دانشگاه شهید بهشتی | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در کشورهای بیشتر توسعهیافته تغییرات چشمگیری در نگرش به مخاطرات دیده میشود؛ به طوری که دیدگاه غالب از تمرکز صرف بر کاهش آسیبپذیری به افزایش تابآوری در مقابل سوانح تغییر یافته است. بر این اساس، در برنامهریزیهای کاهش مخاطرات باید به دنبال ایجاد و تقویت ویژگیهای جوامع تابآور باشند. در این میان، به مفهوم عام، شهر تهران به دلیل شرایط خاص طبیعی و جغرافیایی آن مستعد شوکهای متعددی ازجمله زلزله، سیل، و... است که ضرورت توجه به مفهوم تابآوری شهری را میرساند.در این مقاله هدف سنجش تابآوری شهر تهران به منزلۀ اولین گام در فرایند تابآور کردن شهر با بهکارگیری مدل و شاخصهای تعیینکنندۀ تابآوری و بیان روشی برای بررسی آن است. برای نیل به این هدف با استفاده از دادههای آماری سال 1390 محلات شهر تهران و بهکارگیری روش شاخصهای تابآوری خط مبنا برای جوامع و تمرکز بر مجموعهای از شاخصها بر اساس مدل اصلاحشدۀ تابآوری مکانی بلایا (DROP)، عرضهشده از سوی کاتر و همکاران در سال 2008، مدل مفهومی مطالعه ساخته و برای محاسبۀ شاخص تلفیقی تابآوری مدل تحلیلی F’ANP، که ترکیبی از تحلیل عاملی و مدل شبکهای ANP است، استفاده شده است. پس از تدقیق مدل مفهومی از طریق انجام تحلیل عاملی تأییدی، به تفکیک ابعاد تابآوری، 23 شاخص تبیینکنندۀ تابآوری شهری در شهر تهران، پس از تحلیل عاملی اکتشافی، به شش عامل اجتماعیـ اقتصادی، دسترسی به خدمات عمومی، زیرساختـ جامعهای، فضای باز (زیرساختی)، فعالیتیـ اقتصادی، زیرساختی منجر گردیدند که این عوامل و شاخصهای آنها برای انجام فرایند مدل تحلیلی F’ANP به منظور استخراج ضریب اهمیت نسبی به کار گرفته شدند. این ضریب اهمیت با روش تلفیق حسابی ترکیب و نهایتاً شاخص تلفیقی تابآوری محلات شهر تهران به دست آمد و در سطح محلات شهر تهران ترسیم گردید. نتایج تابآوری بیشتر محلات نیمۀ شمالی تهران را در مقایسه با نیمۀ جنوبی نشان میدهند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| تابآوری شهری؛ DROP؛ تحلیل عاملی؛ F’ANP؛ تهران | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Measurement of Resilience and Its Distribution in Tehran Districts | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In more developed countries significant changes have occurred in the ways in which risks are viewed, so much that the prevailing view has shifted from a mere concentration of vulnerability reduction towards increasing resilience against disasters. On this basis, risk reduction programmes should seek the creation and reinforcement of resilient communities. Due to its particular natural and geographic conditions, Tehran has been vulnerable against a series of shocks including earthquakes, floods etc., rendering the attention to the concept of resilience all the more necessary. The present paper views the measurement of resilience in Tehran using indicators, and the offering of an investigation method, as a first step towards making the city more resilient. This is done here based on Tehran districts’ 2001 statistical data, using ‘Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities’ (BRIC) methods, and with a focus on a series of indicators based on amended ‘Disaster Resilience of Place’ (DROP) model as presented by Cutter et al. A conceptual model is made on this basis, and used to calculate a combined resilience indicator using ‘Fuzzy Analytic Network Process’ (F’ANP), which is comprised of factor analysis and ANP network model. After accurately defining the conceptual model through affirming factor analysis according to resilience levels, Tehran’s 23 resilience indicators were determined under six categories socio-economic, public service accessibility, infrastructural-social, open space (infrastructural), activity-economic, and infrastructural. These factors and their indicators were then used to process F’ANP analytical model. This significance factor was then combined with arithmetic combination method, and eventually the resilience combined indicator was worked out, and then applied to Tehran districts. The results show higher resilience levels for the northern half of Tehran compared to its southern half. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Urban resilience, DROP, Factor analysis, F’ANP, Tehran | ||
| مراجع | ||
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