بررسی تطبیقی روش RAS استاندارد با روش پیشنهادی در تحلیل آثار اقتصادی ناشی از تکانه قیمت بنزین | ||
| اقتصاد و الگو سازی | ||
| دوره 12، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 47، آذر 1400، صفحه 71-105 اصل مقاله (770.81 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.29252/jem.2022.225507.1710 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علی فریدزاد* 1؛ علی اصغر بانوئی2؛ اله شکری3 | ||
| 1دانشیار گروه اقتصاد انرژی، کشاورزی و محیطزیست دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2استاد گروه اقتصاد توسعه و برنامهریزی دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد انرژی دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| یکی از فروض اساسی در جداول داده-ستانده، فرض ثبات تکنولوژی و به تبع آن ثبات ضرایب فزاینده تولید است. در این پژوهش با استفاده از روش بهنگامسازی رأس (RAS) پیشنهادی، نشان داده میشود که یک شوک برونزای سیاستی چگونه ضرایب فزاینده تولید را در مقایسه با یک الگوسازی اقتصادی در جدول داده-ستانده تغییر خواهد داد. برخلاف روش RAS متعارف، در این روش علاوهبر تغییر ساختار تکنولوژیکی تولید ناشی از شوک قیمتی بنزین، ارزش افزوده و تقاضای نهایی بر مبنای شوک قیمتی بنزین تعدیل میشوند و بدین ترتیب رابطه درآمد و مصرف خانوارها و پیوند آن به قیمت برجسته میگردد. برای ارائه سناریوهای تعدیل ارزشافزوده و تقاضای نهایی، افزایش قیمت بنزین از لیتری ده هزار ریال به لیتری سی هزار ریال در نظر گرفته شده است. یافتههای این پژوهش نشان میدهد که در اثر شوک افزایش قیمت بنزین، ضریب فزاینده فعالیت حمل و نقل در حالت روش پیشنهادی در مقایسه با ضریب بدست آمده از جدول داده-ستانده در حالت استاندارد RAS بیشترین کاهش در ضریب فزاینده تولید را تجربه میکند که میزان این کاهش معادل 0376/0 واحد است. ضرایب فزاینده تولیدی برای همه فعالیتهای اقتصادی به جز بنزین با استفاده از روش پیشنهادی در مقایسه با ضرایب تولیدی در حالت استاندارد، به همین شکل کاهش مییابند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| بهنگامسازی؛ جدول داده – ستانده؛ روش راس (RAS)؛ سنجش خطاهای آماری؛ بنزین | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Comparative Analysis of Standard RAS Method with a New Procedure in Analyzing the Economic Effects of Gasoline Price Shock | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Ali Faridzad1؛ Ali Asghar Banouei2؛ Elahe Shokri3 | ||
| 1Associate Professor of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran Iran | ||
| 2Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran Iran | ||
| 3MA in Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| One of the basic assumptions in input-output tables is technology stability and consequently the stability of production multipliers. In this study, using a new approach based on the RAS update method, we show that how an exogenous policy shock such as rising gasoline prices changes production multipliers compared to an updating on a Standard RAS. Unlike the conventional RAS method, in addition to changing the technological structure of production due to gasoline price shock, in order to link household consumption and income of production factors, value added, and final demand are adjusted based on gasoline price shock and thus the relationship between household income and consumption and its connection with the price is highlighted. To provide value-added adjustment scenarios and final demand, an increase in the price of gasoline from 10,000 rials per liter to 30,000 rials has been considered. For this purpose, the input-output table of the Central Bank of Iran for 2016 has been employed. The findings indicate that due to the increasing the price of gasoline, the production multipliers for all economic activities except gasoline have been reduced using the proposed method compared to the standard RAS model. Examination of the results obtained for the total cost of production and output of all economic activities also shows that the highest increase in production cost and the lowest decrease in total output is related to gasoline. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Updating, Input-Output Table, RAS Method, Mean Absolute Deviation, Gasoline | ||
| مراجع | ||
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