شبیهسازی آماری فرین‌های دمای شهر زنجان براساس سناریوهای آب‌وهوایی | ||
| پژوهشهای دانش زمین | ||
| مقاله 1، دوره 14، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 54، 1402، صفحه 1-19 اصل مقاله (1.32 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.48308/esrj.2023.103377 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| لیلا احدی* 1؛ حسین عساکره1؛ یونس خسروی2 | ||
| 1گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران | ||
| 2گروه علوم محیط زیست، دانشکده علوم، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| مقدمه: آب و هوا یکی از اساسی ترین عوامل در ساختار سیاره زمین است. تغییر اقلیم میتواند بازخوردها و پیامدهای زیادی داشته باشد. با توجه به افزایش افراط‌های اقلیمی و مخاطرات طبیعی در ایران که با حساسیت اکولوژیکی مشخص میشود، این رویدادها تأثیر بسزایی بر وضعیت منابع آبی، کشاورزی، انرژی، گردشگری و شرایط زیست‌اقلیمی دارد. بنابراین مطالعه این رشته یک ضرورت اجتناب ناپذیر است. هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر، بررسی شبیهسازی مقادیر میانگین و حداقل، حداکثر و میانگین دمای روزانه زنجان براساس سناریوهای اقلیمی و با استفاده از مدل SDSM است. مواد و روشها: روش انجام پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی و روش گردآوری دادهها کتابخانهای (اسنادی) است. مدل SDSM و سناریوهای آب و هوایی (RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5) برای شبیهسازی متغیرهای دما استفاده شده است. داده های مورد استفاده شامل میانگین، حداقل و حداکثر دمای روزانه ثبت شده در ایستگاه حمید زنجان طی دوره زمانی 1961-2021 و دادههای مدل گردش عمومی جو برای شبیهسازی متغیرهای اقلیمی در دورههای آتی میباشد. به منظور به دست آوردن مناسبترین متغیرهای جوی برای تخمین پروفیلهای دمایی سه گانه، رابطه بین متغیرهای وابسته (حداقل، متوسط و حداکثر دمای روزانه) با متغیرهای مستقل جوی (NCEP) برای انتخاب متغیرهای مستقل و کالیبراسیون مجدد مدل برای متغیرهای وابسته مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. همچنین از مدل زنجیره مارکوف برای بررسی احتمالات رخدادهای فرین استفاده شده است. به منظور کالیبراسیون مجدد مدل SDSM، دادههای مشاهدهای ایستگاه زنجان و دادههای مرکز ملی پیشبینی متغیرهای محیطی NCEP به دو دوره 1961-1990 و 1991-2005 تقسیم شدند. دوره اول برای کالیبراسیون مدل استفاده شد. نتایج و بحث: نتایج شبیهسازی سه متغیر دمایی مورد مطالعه نشان داد که در تمامی سناریوها در دوره زمانی 2100-2082 بیشترین افزایش را نسبت به مقادیر این متغیرها در دوره پایه (2021-1961) خواهند داشت. بررسی ماهانه دادههای شبیهسازی شده و دادههای مشاهده شده متغیرهای مورد مطالعه نشان داد که براساس سناریوهای مورد مطالعه و مدل SDSM مشخص شد که از سال 2022 تا 2100 حداقل دما 2 درجه، حداکثر و متوسط دما افزایش مییابد. 3 درجه میانگین حداقل و میانگین دما در دی و بهمن بیشترین افزایش و در مهرماه کمترین افزایش را خواهد داشت. در حالی که میانگین حداکثر دما در مرداد ماه و کمترین آن در فروردین ماه افزایش خواهد یافت. نتیجه گیری: نتایج نشان میدهد که تمام فصول سال به ویژه فصول سرد سال گرمتر خواهند شد. به عبارت دیگر، فصول سرد کوتاهتر خواهد بود. تعداد فرکانسهای شدید مشاهده شده در هر سه پارامتر دمایی برای چارک‌های 25 و 75 کمتر از تعداد رویدادهای دمای شدید شبیهسازی شده در هر سه سناریو است. بیشترین تعداد فرکانسهای بسیار پایین در ماه ژانویه و بیشترین تعداد فرکانسهای بسیار بالا در ماه جولای پیشبینی میشود. ذیرش می‌سازد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| زنجان؛ سناریوهای آب‌وهوایی؛ شبیه سازی؛ فرین دما؛ SDSM | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Statistical simulation of extreme temperatures in Zanjan based on climate scenarios | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Leila Ahadi1؛ Hossein Asakereh1؛ Yunes Khosravi2 | ||
| 1Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran | ||
| 2Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction: Climate is one of the most fundamental factors in the structure of the planet Earth. Climate change can have many feedbacks and consequences. Due to the increase in climatic extremes and natural hazards in Iran, which is characterized by ecological sensitivity, these events have a significant impact on the state of water resources, agriculture, energy, tourism, and bio-climatic conditions; Therefore, studying this field is an inevitable necessity. The main goal of the current research is to investigate the simulation of average values and minimum, maximum and average daily temperatures of Zanjan based on climate scenarios and using the SDSM model. Materials and methods: The method of carrying out descriptive-analytical research and the method of collecting data is library (documents). SDSM model and climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used to simulate temperature variables. The data used includes the average, minimum and maximum daily temperature recorded at the Hamdid Zanjan station during the period of 1961-2021 and the data of the general atmospheric circulation model to simulate climate variables in future periods. In order to obtain the most suitable atmospheric variables for estimating triple temperature profiles, the relationship between dependent variables (minimum, average and maximum daily temperature) with independent atmospheric variables (NCEP) was examined to select independent variables and recalibrate the model for dependent variables. Also, the Markov chain model has been used to investigate the probabilities of Frein events. In order to recalibrate the SDSM model, the observational data of Zanjan station and the data of NCEP National Center for Prediction of Environmental Variables were divided into two periods: 1961-1990 and 1991-2005. The first period was used to calibrate the model. Results and discussion: The simulation results of the three studied temperature variables showed that in all scenarios, they will increase the most in the period of 2082-2100 compared to the values of these variables in the base period (1961-2021). The monthly review of the simulated data and the observed data of the studied variables showed that based on the studied scenarios and the SDSM model, it was determined that from 2022-2100 the minimum temperature will increase by 2 degrees, the maximum and average temperature by 3 degrees. The average minimum and average temperature will increase the most in January and February and the least in October. While the average maximum temperature will increase the most in August and the least in April. Conclusion: Result shows that all seasons of the year will become warmer, especially the cold seasons of the year. In other words, the cold seasons will be shorter. The number of extreme frequencies observed in all three temperature parameters for the 25th and 75th quartiles is less than the number of simulated extreme temperature events in all three scenarios. The highest number of extreme low frequencies is expected in January and the highest number of extreme high frequencies is expected in July. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Zanjan, Climate scenarios, Simulation, Extreme temperature, SDSM | ||
| مراجع | ||
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