Designing a dynamic foreign trade system model to investigate the effect of customs during the Covid 19 Disease | ||
| International Journal of New Political Economy | ||
| مقاله 11، دوره 4، شماره 2، 2023، صفحه 279-299 اصل مقاله (577.26 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Original Article | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.48308/jep.4.2.279 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Arshia Badi* 1؛ Farhad Rahbar1؛ Habib Arasteh Rad2 | ||
| 1Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Institute of Applied and Intelligent Systems, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Today, the outbreaks of epidemic diseases such as Covid 19 is one of the most important challenges that facing the world economy. Therefore, the study of the effects of epidemic diseases on the economy is of particular importance. The studies showed there is a close relationship between trade, economy and production. In this paper, we will focus on the effect of the epidemic on macroeconomics, especially foreign trade. To achieve this goal, a new dynamic system model of the supply chain in foreign trade, is mathematically modeled. In this model, the parameters affecting the macroeconomy in the field of foreign trade and domestic production have been considered. Since epidemic diseases affect market demand and factory performance, they will have a direct impact on commodity prices and trade volume. Studying this effect is important during and after the epidemic. On the other hand, This model is simulated using time-varying behavior and input with time. Using a new method and utilizing the science of control engineering, an optimal tariff estimation system will be developed. Within system, it is possible to use policymakers to make the right decision in different situations. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Foreign Trade؛ Dynamic System؛ Control Engineering؛ Covid-19 | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Alasty.A. (2009). Control of stochastic chaos using sliding mode method, H Salarieh, Journal of computational and applied mathematics, 225 (1), 135-145.
Andrew Hood, P. (2020). International Trade and Regulation, Fieldfisher Richard Tauwhare, Advisor, International Trade and Regulation.
ArastehRad, H, Badi, A. (2020). A study on control of novel corona-virus (2019-nCoV) disease process by using PID controller.
Arsham, H. (2013). Modeling tariff to analyze protectionism, International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, 84 (4).
Åström, K.J. (1995). PID Controllers: Theory, Design and Tuning; ISA: The Instrumentation, Systems, and Automation Society: Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
Åström, K.J.; Hägglund, T. (2001). The future of PID control. Control Eng. Pract, 9, 1163–1175. [CrossRef]
Åström, K.J.; Hägglund, T. (2006). Advanced PID Control; ISA: The Instrumentation, Systems, and Automation Society: Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
Åström, K.J.; Hägglund,T(2004). Revisiting the Ziegler–Nichols step response method for PID control. Journal of Process Control, 14, 635–650. [CrossRef]
Backer, J. A., Klinkenberg, D., & Wallinga, J. (2020). The incubation period of 2019-nCoV infections among travellers from Wuhan, China. medRxiv.
Badi, .A, Rahbar, .F, Baiedi, .A, Arasteh, .H, Talebi, .M, (2021). A New Dynamic System Model to Control the Price of Goods during the Epidemic of COVID-19 using Customs Tariffs, Indonesia
Biswas .M.H.A, Paiva, .L, (2014). A SEIR model for control of infectious diseases with constraints. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 11(4), 761-784. doi: 10.3934/mbe.
Brauer .F, Castillo-Chavez, .C. (2001). Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemiology, Springer-Verlag. New York.
DOSM. (2019, Nov 14).Demographic Statistics Third Quarter 2019, Malaysia. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
GACC (General Administration of Customs, PRC). 2020. China’s total export & import values, January–February 2020. [2020-04-23]. http://english.customs.gov.cn/ Statics/6e759864-240f-
Katayama, .S, Ursprung, .H. (2012). International Economic Policies in a Globalized World, Springer, New York, N.Y.
Labadin, J.;Hong B.H (2020). Transmission Dynamics of 2019-nCoV in Malaysia View , medRxiv.
MICHAEL J. R. (2008). System Dynamics and Its Contribution to Economics and Economic Modeling, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science Worcester, USA.
Naidu .D .S, Fernando, .T, Fister, .K.R (2011), Optimal control in diabetes, Optim. Control Appl. Meth., 32, 181–184.
Nordea. Markets. Large Corporates & Institutions. Available online: https://nordeamarkets.com/ (accessed on 12 April 2020).
Ogata, Katsuhiko. (2009). Modern Control Engineering.
Raymond J. Hawkins, Jeffrey K. Speakes, Dan E. Hamilton,(2014), Monetary policy and PID control, Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, April, 10 (1), 183–197.
Razin, .A, Vosgerau, .H-J. (2011). Trade and Tax Policy, Inflation and Exchange Rates: A Modern View, Springer, New York, N.Y.
Read, J. M., Bridgen, J. R., Cummings, D. A., Ho, A., & Jewell, C. P. (2020). Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions. medRxiv.
Sharifi .N and jafari. M (2016).The effect of increasing tariffs on imported consumer goods on consumer and producer price indices in Iran, Scientific Policy Research Journal, 7 (14), Winter, 2015. (In Persian)
Taylor JB (1993a) Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conf Ser Public Policy 39,195–214.
The Star. (2020, Feb 4). First Malaysian tests positive for Wuhan coronavirus. Retrieved Feb 5, 2020, from https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/02/04/first-malaysian-testspositive-for-wuhan-coronavirus 5. The Star.
UN (The United Nations). 2020. COVID-19: The global food supply chain is holding up, for now. UN News, 2020-04-03. [2020-04-20]. https://news.un.org/en/ story/2020/04/1061032.
United Nation (2020). The effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on international trade and logistics, Special Report Covid 19, No.6.
Vasiljeva .M, Neskorodieva, .I, Ponkratov, .V, Kuznetsov, N, Ivlev, V, Ivleva, M, Maramygin, M, Zekiy, .A. (2020). A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries. Open Innov. Technol. Mark. Complex. 6(3): 92.
World Bank. (2019). World Bank national accounts data. [202004-27]. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL. ZS?locations=CN
World Bank. 2019. World Bank national accounts data. [202004-27]. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL. ZS? locations=CN | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 108 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 290 |
||