An Optimal Monetary Policy in a Long- Run Coexistence with COVID-19 | ||
| International Journal of New Political Economy | ||
| مقاله 9، دوره 5، شماره 1، 2024، صفحه 239-268 اصل مقاله (634.07 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Original Article | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.48308/jep.5.1.239 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| Iman Bastanifar* | ||
| Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| With the advent of COVID-19 health authorities of most Top high GDP countries dominated the economy. A policy response to COVID-19 pandemic, was the lockdown policy. I show that this discretionary biological health policy in a new shopping time model by dynamic programming technique, decrease the value of transaction time saved by holding additional money and increases the real balance of money during COVID-19. An optimal monetary policy rule during COVID-19 is a rule, based on that, the growth rate of banking discount rate equals the variation of case fatality risk (CFR). This rule is computed as an optimal monetary policy rule for each month of the top 15 GDP countries of the world in 2020. The results show that the rate of rapid and hasty reduction of the announced discount rates during the COVID-19 period were not optimal and would be one of the reasons for the occurrence of inflation and the failure of the inflation target policy in recent years. Therefore, I recommend a rule to determine an optimal monetary policy when our world experiences a biological shock. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Shopping time؛ Discount rate؛ Rule؛ Dynamic programming؛ CFR | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Alfaso,V,.Ercolano,S.(2020). The efficiency of lockdown against COVID-19: a cross-country panel analysis. Journal of Applied Health Economics and Health Policy; 18(4); 509–517
- Alvarez, F.E., Argente,D., & Lippi,F.(2021). A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown. American economic review;3(3): 367-82
- Baldwin,R.(2020). Dimauro , W. M.(2020). Economics in the Time of COVID-19. Centre for Economic Policy Research.
- Barro,R.J., & Gordon,D.B. (1983a).Rules, Discretion and Reputation, In a Model of Monetary Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics; 12; 101-121.
- Barro, R.J., &Gordon,D.B. (1983b). A positive theory of monetary policy in a natural rate model, Journal of Political Economy. Journal of Political Economy;91(40); 589-610.
- Barro, R.J. (1986). Reputation in a model of monetary policy with incomplete information. Journal of Monetary Economics; 17; 3-20.
- Barro, R.J.,& Ursúa ,J. F.,& Weng ,Joanna .(2020). The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity. Working Paper 26866, National Bureau of Economic Research.
-Barua,S .(2021).Understanding Coronanomics: The Economic Implications of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic. The Journal of Developing Areas; 55(3), 435-450.
- Bastanifar, I., Vaez ,B,M.,& Dallali,R., &Bakhshi,R .(2013). Alternative Conditions to Time Inconsistency Equilibrium of an International Monetary Policy. International Economics Studies ;42(1); 57-67.
-Beck, T .(2020). Finance in the times of coronavirus. In Baldwin, R. and di Mauro, B.W. (Eds), Economics in the Time of COVID-19,. Centre for Economic Policy Research.73-77.
- Cecchetti, S .(2020).Contagion: Bank runs and COVID-19. In Baldwin, R. and di Mauro, B.W. (Eds), Economics in the Time of COVID-19, Centre for Economic Policy Research: London; 77-81.
- Chudic,A., Hashempesaran., M, &Rebucci. A .(2021). COVID-19 Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing. Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research, Working Papers w 28269.
-Disemadi,H,S., & Handika,D,O.(2020). Community compliance with the covid-19 protocol hygiene policy in Klaten Regency, Indonesia . Legality,jurnal ilmiah Hukum; 28(2);121-133.
- Fornaro ,L.,& Wolf,M .(2020). Covid-19 Coronavirus and Macroeconomic Policy. Working Papers 1713, European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon.
- Gillman, M .(2009). Inflation theory in Economics. Welfare, Velocity, growth and business cycle: Routledge.
- Gillman, M .(2020). The welfare cost of inflation with banking time. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics; 20(1):1- 20. DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2018-0059
-Harrington ,R. A .(2008) Encyclopedia of Epidemiology. https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate.
-Ivorraa, B., Fernandez ,M.R., Vela-Pérez , M., & Ramos, A.M .(2020). Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) taking into account the undetected infections. The case of China, communications in nonlinear science and numerical simulation . 88. 105303. DOI: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2020.105303.
-Kermac, W. O., Mckendrick,A .G .(1927). A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society. 115 (772); 700–721.
-Kendall, D. G .(1956). Deterministic and stochastic epidemics in closed populations. Proceedings of the Third Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability: Contributions to Biology and Problems of Health 4; 149–165.
Keyes, J.M. (1936). General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, New York.
- Kydland,F,K .,Prescott,E.C.(1977). Rules Rather Than Discretion, The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans, Political Economy; 85(3); 473-492.
- Lucas, R. J., & Stokey, N.(1983). Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital. Journal of Monetary Economics; 12, 55–93.
- Lucas, R. J. (2000). Inflation and welfare. Journal of the econometric society; 68(2), 247-274.
-Mankiew, G .M .(2003).Principle of Macroeconomics, Third Edition. Southwester, Thomson.
Mishkin. F, S .(2004). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets, seventh edition, The Addison-Wesley Series in Economics.
- Nivette, A., Ribeaud, D., Murray, A., Steinhoff ,A., Bechtiger, L., Hepp,U., Shanahan, L.,& Eisner,M .(2021). Non-compliance with COVID-19-related public health measures among young adults in Switzerland: Insights from a longitudinal cohort study. Social science and medicine, 268; 113370. DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113370.
- Porta, M .(2014). A Dictionary of Epidemiology, sixth edition. New York: Oxford University Press.
- Resi, R .(2007). The analytics of monetary non-neutrality in the Sidrauski model. Economics Letters ;97(1); 129–135.
-Ross,R .(1916). "An application of the theory of probabilities to the study of a priori pathometry. —Part I". Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character. ;92 ;204-230. doi:10.1098/rspa.1916.0007.
- Ross, R., &Hudson, H .(1917). "An application of the theory of probabilities to the study of a priori pathometry.—Part II". Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character.; 93; 212- 225. doi:10.1098/rspa.1917.0014
- Stiglitz ,J. (2021). Lessons from Covid-19 and Trump for Theory and Policy. Policy Modeling, 43(4),749-760 . DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.02.004.
-Tabellinin, G. (2005). Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott’s Contribution to the Theory of Macroeconomic Policy. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 107(2); 203-216. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2005. 00404.x
-Thornton, D.L.(1982). The Discount Rate and Market Interest Rates: What’s the Connection? Federal bank of St.Louis.
- Umesh, U. N.,Keity,L.,Carl,S. (1989). Shopping time of the time-Sensitive Consumer. Decision science 20(4); 715-729. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5915.1989.tb01415.x
- Walsh,C,E.(2017). Monetary Theory and Policy, The fourth edition. MIT Press.
www.fredhelp.stlouisfed.org
www.https://data.imf.org.
https://data.oecd.org/money/narrow-money-m1.htm#indicator-chart).
www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates).
www.globalpeoservices.com
www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-Sci_Brief-Natural_immunity-2021.1
www.worldometers.info/world-population
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/interest-rate.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/bank_of_japan_basic_discount_rate_daily.
https://www.global-rates.com.
| ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 189 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 107 |
||