توسعۀ مدل مکانی– زمانی مطلوبیت زیستگاه برای ارزیابی تغییرات تنوع زیستی در پاسخ به تغییر اقلیم | ||
| نشریه سنجش از دور و GIS ایران | ||
| دوره 16، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 64، 1403، صفحه 115-137 اصل مقاله (1.38 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.48308/gisj.2024.236293.1225 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| الهام ابراهیمی1؛ فراهم احمد زاده* 2؛ اصغر عبدلی3؛ بابک نعیمی4 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری، گروه تنوع زیستی و مدیریت اکوسیستم، پژوهشکدة علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار، گروه تنوع زیستی و مدیریت اکوسیستم، پژوهشکدة علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3استاد، گروه تنوع زیستی و مدیریت اکوسیستم، پژوهشکدة علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 4استادیار، گروه پویایی کمّی تنوع زیستی، گروه زیستشناسی، دانشگاه اوترخت، هلند | ||
| چکیده | ||
| سابقه و هدف: ازدستدادن تنوعزیستی تهدیدی جهانی برای انسانها محسوب میشود. برای مقابله با این تهدیدها، سازمانهای جهانی محیطزیستی اهداف و برنامههای استراتژیک ویژهای را در قالب چارچوب جهانی تنوعزیستی کونمینگ– مونترال، بهمنظور درک چگونگی تغییرات تنوعزیستی در طول زمان و شناسایی عوامل تأثیرگذار در آنها، تصویب کردند. بدینمنظور ابزارهای مدلسازی تنوع زیستی، بهویژه مدلهای مطلوبیت زیستگاه (توزیع گونهای) که از پرکاربردترین روشهای شناختهشده برای مطالعات تنوع زیستی محسوب میشوند، نقشی اساسی دارند. با وجود پیشرفتهای شگرف در توسعۀ روشهای مدلسازی در کنار دسترسی روزافزون به دادههای مکانی، مدلهای فعلی در پیشبینی دقیق وضعیت و تغییرات تنوعزیستی محدودیتهای جدی دارند؛ این مسئله به ناممکنبودن ایجاد چارچوبی مناسب برای پایش تنوع زیستی در طول زمان منجر میشود. یکی از مهمترین محدودیتهای کاربردی این مدلها ناسازگاری دادههای ثبتشده، بهلحاظ فراوانی و گسترۀ مکانی حضور گونهها در بازههای زمانی متفاوت است. این شرایط امکان توسعۀ مدلهای مکانی– زمانی را که در درک پویایی و تغییرات توزیع جغرافیایی گونهها طی زمان ضروریاند، محدود میکند. هدف از این مطالعه بیان راهحلی برای غلبه بر مشکلات ناسازگاری دادههای تنوع زیستی در طول زمان، و توسعۀ فرایند محاسباتی برای مدلسازی مکانی– زمانی مطلوبیت زیستگاه و سپس کمّیسازی تغییرات در توزیع مکانی است. مواد و روشها: در این مطالعه، برای توسعۀ مدل مکانی– زمانی تنوع زیستی، از دادههای حضور گونۀ نوعی بز کوهی (Hippotragus equinus) استفاده شد. دادههای سری زمانی بلندمدت حضور این گونه بین سالهای ۱۹۰۱ تا ۲۰۲۰ از پایگاه دادۀ جهانی GBIF، بهمنظور توسعۀ مدلهای مکانی– زمانی، و همچنین دادههای سری زمانی تنوع زیستی (فراوانی گونه) در پایگاههای اطلاعاتی LPI و BioTime برای اعتبارسنجی ارزیابی تغییرات تنوع زیستی به کار رفت. بهعلاوه، دادههای اقلیمی از پایگاه دادۀ CRUTS استخراج شدند که براساس آنها، لایههای اطلاعاتی نوزدهگانۀ زیستاقلیمی بهصورت سالیانه تولید شد. پس از پاکسازی و آمادهسازی دادههای گونه و انتخاب متغیرهای مناسب در حین آزمایش چندخطیگری، دادههای سری زمانی بهصورت یکپارچه در جدول دادۀ واحد یا استخر داده گردآوری شدند. در این رویکرد، دادههای حضور گونه متعلق به هر سال به اطلاعات اقلیمی همان سال و مکان پیوند داده شد. سپس برای توسعۀ مدل مکانی– زمانی و بهمنظور بهبود کارآیی و کاهش عدمقطعیت مدلها، ده الگوریتم مرسوم یادگیری ماشینی انتخاب و مدلهای مکانی– زمانی کالیبره شدند. پس از اعتبارسنجی مدلها، الگوی مکانی توزیع گونه با ترکیب پیشبینیهای حاصل از مدلهای گوناگون، با استفاده از میانگینگیری وزنی (انسمبل) برای هر سال، پیشبینی شد؛ این کار به تولید سری زمانی ۱۲۰ساله شامل پیشبینیهای توزیع مکانی گونهای منجر شد. در گام بعدی، با استفاده از تابع تخمینگر شیب سن، روند تغییرات مطلوبیت زیستگاهی در طول ۱۲۰ سال در هر پیکسل محاسبه شد. نتایج و بحث: نتایج اعتبارسنجی مدلها نشان داد که تمامی روشهای مدلسازی از عملکرد بسیار خوبی برخوردار بودند؛ بهگونهایکه شاخص AUC برای این مدلها بین 996/0 و 926/0 محاسبه شد. تحلیل نقشههای روند تغییرات تنوع زیستی در طول زمان نشان داد که در عرضهای جنوبی، احتمال حضور گونه بهتدریج کاهش یافته است؛ درحالیکه در کمربند میانی افریقا، افزایش احتمال حضور این گونه مشاهده میشود. صحتسنجی نتایج، با استفاده از دادههای سری زمانی توزیع و فراوانی گونه از منابع BioTime و LPI، نشان داد که بهترتیب در 88% و 84% نقاط کاهش مطلوبیت زیستگاهی، مدل با دادههای واقعی همپوشانی دارد؛ این مسئله دقت بالای مدل را در پیشبینی توزیع و تغییرات گونهای در طول زمان تأیید میکند. نتیجهگیری: راهحل ارائهشده در این مطالعه، افزون بر اینکه امکان مدلسازی مکانی– زمانی برای تحلیل الگوهای توزیع گونهها و تغییرات آنها را فراهم میآورد، با افزایش دقت در کمّیسازی آشیان بومشناختی، به بهبود پیشبینی الگوهای توزیع مکانی و کاهش عدم اطمینان در ارزیابیها کمک میکند. این رویکرد با ارتقای پوشش و اندازۀ نمونهها، چالشهای در زمینۀ ناسازگاری زمانی دادهها را حل میکند و استفادۀ بهینه از تمامی رکوردهای اطلاعاتی موجود را ممکن میسازد. این مطالعه بر اهمیت بُعد زمانی در مدلهای توزیع گونهای تأکید دارد و این رویکرد، بهویژه در مناطقی با تغییرات اقلیمی بیشتر، از اهمیت فراوانی برخوردار است و میتواند در راستای اهداف توسعۀ پایدار، حفاظت از تنوع زیستی و چارچوب جهانی KM-GBF به مدیران برای تصمیمگیری حفاظتی کمک کند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| مدل مکانی– زمانی توزیع گونهای؛ ناسازگاری دادهها؛ تغییرات تنوع زیستی؛ سری زمانی بلندمدت دادۀ اقلیمی؛ یادگیری ماشینی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Developing a Spatiotemporal Habitat Suitability Model to Assess Biodiversity Changes in Response to Climate Change | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Elham Ebrahimi1؛ Faraham Ahmadzadeh2؛ Asghar Abdoli3؛ Babak Naimi4 | ||
| 1PHD Student, Dep. of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Dep. of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Professor, Dep. of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 4Assistant Professor, Quantitative Biodiversity Dynamics, Dep. of Biology, University of Utrecht, The Netherlands | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction: Biodiversity loss is a global threat to humanity. To address these challenges, international environmental organizations have adopted specific strategic goals and plans within the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework to understand how biodiversity changes over time and to identify the factors influencing these changes. Biodiversity modeling tools, particularly habitat suitability models (species distribution models), play a critical role in this effort. Despite significant advances in modeling techniques and the growing availability of spatial data, current models face serious limitations in accurately predicting biodiversity status and changes, hindering the development of an effective framework for monitoring biodiversity over time. One of the most significant practical limitations of these models is the inconsistency of recorded data in terms of species presence frequency and spatial extent across different time periods. This inconsistency limits the development of spatiotemporal models necessary for understanding species distribution dynamics over time. The objective of this study is to propose a solution to overcome the inconsistencies in biodiversity data over time and to develop a computational process for spatiotemporal habitat suitability modeling. Subsequently, spatiotemporal models were employed to quantify changes in species distribution. Materials and Methods: In this study, a spatiotemporal biodiversity model was developed using presence data of the Roan antelope (Hippotragus equinus). Long-term species presence data spanning from 1901 to 2020 were sourced from the global biodiversity database GBIF to develop the spatiotemporal models. Additionally, species time series data (abundance data) from the LPI and BioTime databases were used to validate the assessment of biodiversity changes. Climatic data were extracted from the CRU TS database, which was used to generate 19 annual environmental layers. After data cleaning and preparation, and selecting appropriate climatic variables by testing for multicollinearity, the time series data were integrated into a single data table or data pool. In this approach, species presence data for each year were linked to the corresponding climatic data for that year and location. To improve model efficiency and reduce uncertainty, 10 common machine learning algorithms were selected to calibrate the spatiotemporal models. After model validation, spatial distribution predictions for each year were obtained by combining predictions from different models using weighted averaging (ensemble), resulting in a 120-year time series of species distribution predictions. Next, the Sen’s slope estimator function was used to calculate the trend of habitat suitability changes over 120 years for each pixel. Results and Discussion: The results of model validation demonstrated that all modeling approaches performed exceptionally well, with AUC values ranging from 0.926 to 0.996, indicating high predictive accuracy. Analysis of the biodiversity trend maps over time revealed a gradual decline in the probability of species presence in southern latitudes. In contrast, an increase in presence probability was observed in the central African belt, suggesting shifts in species distribution patterns. Further validation of the results was carried out using time series data on species distribution and abundance from BioTime and LPI sources. This validation showed that the model accurately matched real data in 88% and 84% of the cases where habitat suitability had decreased. These findings confirm the high accuracy of the model in predicting both species distribution and changes over time. This strong correlation between model predictions and actual data underscores the effectiveness of the proposed spatiotemporal models in capturing and reflecting real-world biodiversity trends. Conclusion: The proposed solution in this study not only enables spatiotemporal modeling for analyzing species distribution patterns and their changes but also improves the accuracy of ecological niche quantification, enhancing spatial distribution predictions and reducing uncertainty in assessments. This approach addresses temporal data inconsistency challenges by increasing sample size and coverage, allowing optimal use of all available records. This study emphasizes the importance of the temporal dimension in species distribution models, particularly in regions with significant climatic changes, and can assist managers in making conservation decisions aligned with sustainable development goals, biodiversity conservation, and the KM-GBF global framework. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Spatio-temporal species distribution model, Data inconsistency, Biodiversity changes, Long-term time series of climate data, Machine learning | ||
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