تحلیل سیاست نرخ ارز در اقتصاد ایران و ارائه راهکارهای اصلاح آن | ||
| اقتصاد و الگو سازی | ||
| دوره 14، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 55، آذر 1402، صفحه 55-88 اصل مقاله (1.15 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.48308/jem.2024.234663.1892 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| بهنام ابراهیمی* 1؛ محمد واعظ برزانی2؛ زهرا زمانی3 | ||
| 1پژوهشگر پسادکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران | ||
| 3دکتری اقتصاد، قطب اقتصاد بینالملل دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| نرخ ارز حقیقی میزان رقابتپذیری را در عرصه بینالملل نشان میدهد. نوسان زیاد این متغیر حاکی از بی ثباتی اقتصاد است که مانع از تصمیمگیری و جهتگیری عقلایی فعالان اقتصادی میشود. بر این اساس، سیاستگذاران تلاش میکنند تا حد ممکن از نوسانات شدید این متغیر بکاهند. با وجود تحریمها و آسیبهای ناشی از آن به حوزههای مختلف تجارت خارجی کشور نوسان نرخ ارز حقیقی برای اقتصاد ایران نسبت به سایر اقتصادها از اهمیت به مراتب بیشتری برخوردار است و بنابراین انتخاب سیاست متناسب نقش پررنگی در ثبات اقتصادی کشور ایفا میکند. هر چند در برنامههای ششم و هفتم به ثبات بخشی نرخ ارز اشاره شده است، اما قاعده خاصی برای دستیابی به آن ذکر نشده است. لذا در این مطالعه سیاست قاعده نرخبندی تورمی ارز و الگوی شامل نرخ بهره، مورد ارزیابی قرار میگیرد. ابتدا الگوی تعدیل شده ادوارد (1989) برای دادههای ایران طی سالهای 1399-1339 برآورد میشود. سپس به منظور ارزیابی تأثیر بروز شوکهای تورمی و نرخ بهره بر رفتار نرخ ارز حقیقی، از تحلیل توابع واکنش ضربهای نیز استفاده میشود. نتایج مطالعه حاکی از آن است که شوکهای تورمی دارای آثار بلندمدت بر نرخ ارز حقیقی است و لذا بروز یک شوک برونزای تورمی به سرعت با عث انحراف فزاینده نرخ ارز از مقدار تعادلی آن خواهد شد.در مقابل، بر اساس تابع واکنش ضربهای نرخ بهره، اثر تغییرات نرخ بهره به سرعت تعدیل شده و نرخ ارز به مقدار تعادلی آن برمیگردد و لذا اتخاذ سیاست قاعدهبندی نرخ ارز بر مبنای هدف تورمی، میتواند باعث دستیابی به اهداف مد نظر برنامههای توسعهای کشور گردد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| نرخ ارز حقیقی؛ جهش نرخ ارز؛ برنامه ششم و برنامه هفتم توسعه | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Analysis of Exchange Rate Policy in the Iranian Economy and Proposing its Reform Solutions | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Behbam Ebrahimi1؛ Mohammad Vaez Barzani2؛ Zahra Zamani3 | ||
| 1PhD in Economics, Post-doc Researcher, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran | ||
| 3PhD in Economics, Center of Excellence for International Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The real exchange rate reflects the level of competitiveness in the international market. High volatility of this variable indicates economic instability, which hinders rational decision-making and direction for economic actors. Therefore, policymakers strive to minimize the fluctuations of this variable as much as possible. With the sanctions and the resulting damages to various sectors of foreign trade, the fluctuation of the real exchange rate has a greater importance for the Iranian economy compared to other economies. Therefore, choosing an appropriate policy plays a significant role in the stability of the country's economy. Although the stability of the exchange rate has been mentioned in the sixth and seventh development plans, no specific rule has been mentioned to achieve it. Therefore, in this study, two policies, inflation-based exchange rate rule and the pattern including interest rate, are evaluated First, the modified Edwards model (1989) is estimated by 1960-2020 data. Then, in order to evaluate the impact of inflation shocks and interest rates on the behavior of the real exchange rate, impulse response function analysis is also used. The results indicate that inflation shocks have long-term effects on the real exchange rate, and therefore, the occurrence of an exogenous inflation shock quickly leads to a deviation of the future exchange rate from its equilibrium level. On the other hand, according to the impulse response function of the interest rate, the effects of interest rate changes are adjusted at a slower pace, and the exchange rate returns to its equilibrium level. Therefore, adopting a rule-based exchange rate policy based on inflation targeting can help achieve the desired goals of the country's development plans. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Real Exchange Rate, Exchange Rate Shock, Sixth Development Plan, Seventh Development Plan | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
- Abu Asab, N., Cuestas, J.C. & Montagnoli, A. (2018). Inflation Targeting or Exchange Rate Targeting: Which Framework Supports the Goal of Price Stability in Emerging Market Economies? PLoS ONE 13(8), e0201798. - Arabmazar, A., & Golmoradi, H. (2010), An Investigation of the Sources of Real Exchange Rate and Inflation Fluctuations in Iran. Economics and Modeling, 1(2), 75-103 (In Persian). - Aziz, N. (2008). The Role of Exchange Rate in Trade Balance: Empirics from Bangladesh. University of Birmingham, UK, June 2008. - Balassa, B. (1964). The Purchasing –Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal, The Journal of Political Economy, 72(6), 584-596. - Bjørnland, H.C. (2009). Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Overshooting: Dornbusch Was Right after All, Journal of International Economics, 79(1), 64–77. - Branson, W. (1977), Asset Markets and Relative Prices in Exchange Rate Determination, Princeton, N.J.: International Finance Section, Dept. of Economics, Princeton University, 1(1977), 69-89. - Cassel, G. (1918). Abnormal Deviations in International Exchange Rates. Economic Journal, 28(112), 413-415. - Chowdhury, M.B. (1999). The Determinants of Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence from Papua New Guinea, Working paper, Asia Pacific Press, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Management. - Collins, SM. (1996). On Becoming More Flexible: Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean. Journal of Development Economics; 51(1), 117–38. - Combes, J-L & P. Plane (2007). Zone Franc et Compétitivité. Rapport thématique Jumbo, October 2007/22. - Cottani, J.A., Cavallo, D. F. & Khan, M.S. (1990). Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 39(1), 61-76. - Couharde, C., Coulibaly I. and Damette, O. (2011) Misalignments and Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates in the CFA Franc Zone, EconomiX Working Papers, 2011-28. - Daei Karimzadeh, S., Emamverdi, G. & Shayesteh, A. (2014). The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Non-Oil Exports to Iran, Financial Economics, 8(29), 151-168 (In Persian). - Dornbusch, R. (1976). Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics, Journal of political Economy, 84(6), 1161-1176. - Dubas, J.M. (2009). The Importance of the Exchange Rate Regime in Limiting Misalignment, World Development, 37(10), 1612-1622. - Dzupire, N.C. (2020). Modeling the Co-Movement of Inflation and Exchange Rate, Chancellor College, University of Malawi, 2020030465 (doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0465.v1). - Edison, H.J. & Melick. W. (1999). Alternative Approaches to Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: 1974-1990, Journal of Monetary Economics, 31, 165-187. - Edwards, S. (1989). Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation and Adjustment: Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries. Cambridge: MIT Press. - Égert B. & Lahrèche-Révil, A. (2003). Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries: The EMU Enlargement Perspective, Working Paper No 2003-05. - Ekhosuehi,V. & Ogbonmwan, S. (2014). Determination of the Optimal Exchange Rate via Control of the Domestic Interest Rate in Nigeria. Operations Research and Decisions, 24(1), 23-36. - Fang Hu, T. (1990). Fundamental Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A NATREX Approach, Doctor thesis، University of Oklahoma State, Evaluation of Research, CESifo Working Papers 525, 1990. - Feshari, M., Abolhassani Hastiani, A. & Rezaei Mirghaed, M. (2019). The Assessment of Iran's Exchange Rate Arrangements in the Framework of Resistive Economy (DSGE Approach), BASIJ Strategic Research Quarterly, 22(83), 67-95 (In Persian). - Fleming, J. (1962). Domestic Financial Policies Under Fixed and Under Floating Exchange Rates, Staff Papers. International Monetary Fund, 9: 79-369. - Frenkel, J.A. (1976). A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 78(2), 200-224. - Froot K. & Rogoff, K. (1995). Perspectives on PPP and Long-run Real Exchange Rates. In: Grossman G, Rogoff K (eds) Handbook of international economics, 3. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1647–1688. - Gantman, E.R. & Dabós, M.P. (2018). Does Trade Openness Influence the Real Effective Exchange Rate? New Evidence from panel time-series. SERIEs, 9, 91–113. - Goldberg, L. (1993). Exchange Rates and Investment in United States Industry, Review of Economics and Statistics, 75, 575-88. - Habibi, R. (2018), The Necessity of Revising the Currency Policy: Looking at the Effect of Exchange Rate on Iran’s Trade Balance and National Production during 2001-2016. Quarterly Journal of The Macro and Strategic Policies, (6), 750-769 (In Persian). - Holtemöller, O. & Mallick, S. (2013). Exchange Rate Regime, Real Misalignment and Currency Crises, Economic Modelling, 34, 5-14. - Jalaie, A., Horri, H.R. & Irani Kermani, F. (2006), Estimating the Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Iran. Economic Research, 6(22), 229-255 (In Persian). - Kandilov, T.I. & Leblebicioglu, A. (2011). The impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Plant-Level Investment: Evidence from Colombia. Journal of Development Economics, 94, 220-230. - Kemme, D. M., & Roy, S. (2006). Real Exchange Rate to Crisis? Economic Systems, 30, 207- 230. - Kouri, P.J. (1976). The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 78(2), 280-304. - Krušković, B. (2020). Exchange Rate Targeting Versus Inflation Targeting: Empirical Analysis of the Impact on Employment and Economic Growth. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, 9(2), 67-85. - LalKhezri, H. & Jafari Samimi, A. (2020). Asymmetric Effect of Exchange Rate Shocks on Income Distribution in Iran: NARDL Approach. Financial Economics, 14(53), 45-63 (In Persian). - Lucas, R. E. (1982). Interest Rates and Currency Prices in a Two-country World. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(3), 335-360. - Lucas, R.E., Jr. (1976). Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique. Carnegie- Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1, 19-46. - Madura, J. (2000). International Financial Management. 6th Edition, South-Western College Publishing. - Mahmodzadeh, M. & Sadeghi, S. (2017). Optimal Exchange Regime for Iranian economy: DSGE Approach. Economic Research, 52(1), 139-162 (In Persian). - Makhmali, H., Veisi, N. & Kamali, P. (2019). The Impact of Inflation Targeting Policy on Currency Management in Developing Countries. Journal of Strategic Management Studies, 10(38), 207-235 (In Persian). - Malekhosseini, S.H., Tayebi, S.K. Rafat, M. & Yazdani, M. (2023). Evaluation of Exchange Rate Regime, Effect on Pass-Through Phenomenon: An Application of Propensity Score Matching Approach. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 27(93), 105-136 (In Persian). - Morina, F., Hysa, E, Ergün, U. Panait, M. & Catalin Voica, M. (2020). The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Case of the CEE Countries, Journal of Risk Management, 13(8), 1-13. - Mozaieni A H. (2013). Pathology of Recent Exchange Rate Fluctuations: With Emphasis on Trade Sector. Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies, 1(1), 81-96 (In Persian). - Mundell, R.A. (1960). The Monetary Dynamics of International Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 74(2), 227–257. - Nouira R., & Sekkat, Kh. (2015). What Determines the Extent of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries? International Economics, 141, 135- 151. - Obstfeld, M., & Rogoff, K. (1995). Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux. Journal of Political Economy, 103(3), 624-660. - Obstfeld, M., & Stockman, A. (1985). Exchange Rate Dynamics. In Bilson, F. O. & Marston, R. C. Exchange Rate Theory and Practice. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. - Olamide, E., Ogujiuba, K., & Maredza, A. (2022). Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Panel Data Approach for SADC. Economies, 10(3), 67, 1-20. - Rabiee, M. & Bid AbadI, B. (2009). The Relationship between Interest Rate and Exchange Rate (Reappraisal and Expansion of Quantitative Theory of Money). Economic Research, 9(32), 67-96 (In Persian). - Sabagh Kermani, M. & Shaghaghi Shahri, V. (2005). The Effective Factors on Real Exchange Rate in Iran (Using Vector Auto-regressive Model). Economic Research, 5(16), 1-241 (In Persian). - Salto, M. & Turrini, A. (2010). Assessing Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the EU. Economic Papers No. 427 / September 2010. - Samuelson, P. (1964). Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems. Review of Economics and Statistics, 46, 145-154. - Serven, L. (2002). Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2823. - Shahabi, F., Sharifi Renani, H. & Azarbayjani, K. (2013). Factors Affecting the Real Exchange Rate of the Iranian Economy: Using the Johansen and Juselius Cointegration Approach. The First National Electronic Conference on the Economic Outlook of Iran with a Focus on Supporting Domestic Production (In Persian). - Tang, M. K. & Lee, J. (2003). Does Productivity Growth Appreciate the Real Exchange Rate? International Monetary Fund, IMF Working Paper, WP/03/154. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 504 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 306 |
||