اثرات ناشی از تنش بین اوکراین و روسیه بر قیمت انرژی و محیطزیست | ||
| اقتصاد و الگو سازی | ||
| دوره 14، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 55، آذر 1402، صفحه 171-198 اصل مقاله (1.17 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.48308/jem.2024.234354.1886 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مهدی نجاتی* 1؛ سید عبدالمجید جلایی2؛ ستاره احمدیان3 | ||
| 1دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران | ||
| 2استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران | ||
| 3کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران، | ||
| چکیده | ||
| جنگ بین روسیه و اوکراین و تحریم انرژی روسیه توسط کشورهای غربی آثار مختلفی بر روسیه و کشورهای جهان گذاشته است. این پژوهش به بررسی پیامدهای اقتصادی و زیست محیطی تحریم انرژی روسیه توسط کشورهای غربی پرداخته است. به همین منظور با بکارگیری یک الگوی تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه چند منطقهای پویا و براساس دادههای سال پایه 2014، اثر تحریمهای انرژی روسیه در افق زمانی 2022 تا 2030 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. فرض براین است که کشورهای تحریم کننده انرژی روسیه، واردات انرژی از روسیه را تا سال 2030 به میزان 90 درصد کاهش دهند. نفت، گاز، زغالسنگ و فرآوردههای نفتی از جمله حاملهای انرژی تحریم شده هستند. نتایج نشان میدهد که در روسیه، رفاه، سطح عمومی قیمتها و تولید ناخالص داخلی کاهش و انتشارکربن افزایش مییابد. علاوهبراین، در کشورهای تحریم کننده روسیه (واردکننده نفت)، رفاه، تولید ناخالص داخلی و انتشار کربن کاهش مییابد، اما سطح عمومی قیمتها روند صعودی را نشان میدهد. چنانچه کشورهای تحریم کننده، صادرکننده نفت باشند، تحریم روسیه منجر به افزایش رفاه آنها میشود. علاوهبراین، در سایر مناطق جهان به جز کشورهای دارای درآمد پایین، رفاه افزایش مییابد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| بحران بینالمللی؛ محیطزیست؛ الگوی تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه؛ جنگ | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Effects of Tension between Ukraine and Russia on Energy Prices and the Environment | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mehdi Nejati1؛ Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaee2؛ Setareh Ahmadian3 | ||
| 1Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran | ||
| 2Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran | ||
| 3MA in Energy Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Considering the importance of the U-R war and its effects on the countries as well as the environment, this research simulates the war between Russia and Ukraine on the variables of GDP growth, consumer welfare index, carbon emission rate, consumer price index in different regions of the world. For this purpose, we use a computable multi-regional dynamic general equilibrium model. 2014 is considered the base year and the effects are analyzed based on the horizon of the International Energy Agency until 2030. We grouped the existing regions into 9 regions based on the criteria of the World Bank and implemented 4 scenarios accordingly. In general, our analysis showed that the reduction of Russian energy exports affects all regions of the world. Also, these shocks have the greatest impact on Russia first and then on Western countries that import energy. After Russia, carbon emissions have decreased the most in low-income countries that are importers, and in high-income countries, real GDP growth increases more steeply. The consumer welfare index in western importing countries and high-income countries has increased more than other countries. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Computable General Equilibrium Model, Environment, International Crisis, War | ||
| مراجع | ||
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