Delineating the Impact of Climate Change on Precipitation and Groundwater Level Fluctuations in A Semi-Arid Region of Iran | ||
| Sustainable Earth Trends | ||
| دوره 6، شماره 1، 2026، صفحه 8-22 اصل مقاله (812.05 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Original Research Article | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.48308/set.2024.237400.1079 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Elyas Reyhani؛ Seyyed Javad Sadatinejad* ؛ Hossein Yousefi؛ Mohammad Mirzavand | ||
| School of Energy Engineering and Sustainable Resources, College of Interdisciplinary Science and Technology, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| In this study, the impacts of climate change on Kashan’s groundwater resources were assessed by utilizing outputs from general circulation models (GCMs) and downscaled precipitation data using the SDSM model. For downscaling, the CanESM2 model was applied under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios to determine precipitation values for future periods. Subsequently, we developed a groundwater model of the aquifer in both steady-state and transient modes using the MODFLOW code within the GMS modeler, based on the hydrological and hydrogeological conditions of the Kashan aquifer. The results of climate downscaling under the CanESM2 model in two scenarios indicated that precipitation percentages during the simulated period of the aquifer (2017-2023) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios were 1.17%, 11.77%, and 14.01%, respectively. The reduced precipitation percentages in the climate scenarios of the aquifer model and the magnitude of changes in the water table level for the three scenarios were estimated over 83-time steps. The changes in the water table level during the base period (2016) indicated a decrease of 0.069 m, 0.75 m, and 0.78 m compared to the previous seven-year simulation (2016-2023) at the last time step in the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. In light of these climate changes, climate parameter alterations directly correlate with recharge, which could be managed through appropriate water table exploitation practices. Such management necessitates a robust program to compensate for reservoir depletion and mitigate further intensification of water table decline in the area. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Climate change؛ SDSM؛ Groundwater resources؛ Kashan aquifer؛ MODFLOW | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Abdo, K., Fiseha, B., Rientjes, T., Gieske, A. & Haile, A., 2009. Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of Gilgel Abay catchment in Lake Tana basin, Ethiopia. Hydrological Processes: An International Journal, 23(26), 3661-3669. Ahmad, M., Arshad, M., Iqbal, M., Waqas, M.M. & Awais, M., 2017. Simulation of groundwater quantity using hydrological model for Mithawan spate irrigated area of Dera Ghazi Khan, Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 54(4). Arshad, A., Mirchi, A., Samimi, M. & Ahmad, B., 2022. Combining downscaled-GRACE data with SWAT to improve the estimation of groundwater storage and depletion variations in the Irrigated Indus Basin (IIB). Science of the Total Environment, 838, 156044. Ashraf, S., Ali, M., Shrestha, S., Hafeez, M.A., Moiz, A. & Sheikh, Z.A., 2022. Impacts of climate and land-use change on groundwater recharge in the semi-arid lower Ravi River basin, Pakistan. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 17, 100743. Bordbar, M., Rezaie, F., Bateni, S.M., Jun, C., Kim, D., Busico, G., Kardan Moghadam, H., Paryani, S., Panahi, M. & Valipour, M., 2023. Global Review of Modification, Optimization, and Improvement Models for Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment in the Era of Climate Change. Current Climate Change Reports, 9, 45–67. Brouyère, S., Carabin, G. & Dassargues, A., 2004. Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer basin, Belgium. Hydrogeology Journal, 12, 123-134. Busuioc, A., Giorgi, F., Bi, X. & Ionita, M., 2006. Comparison of regional climate model and statistical downscaling simulations of different winter precipitation change scenarios over Romania. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 86, 101-123. Çelik, R., 2015. Temporal changes in the groundwater level in the Upper Tigris Basin, Turkey, determined by a GIS technique. Journal of African Earth Sciences, 107, 134-143. Chou, C., Chiang, J. C. H., Lan, C.-W., Chung, C. H., Liao, Y. C., Lee, C. J., 2014. Increase in the range between wet and dry season precipitation. Nature Geoscience, 6(4), 263–267. Chu, J., Xia, J., Xu, C.Y. & Singh, V., 2010. Statistical downscaling of daily mean temperature, pan evaporation and precipitation for climate change scenarios in Haihe River, China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 99, 149-161. Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J. L., Fichefet, T., Friedlingstein, P. & Wehner, M., 2013. Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments, and irreversibility. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1029–1136). Cambridge University Press. Cui, Y., Liao, Z., Wei, Y., Xu, X., Song, Y. & Liu, H., 2020. The response of groundwater level to climate change and human activities in Baotou City, China. Water, 12(4), 1078. Diancoumba, O., Toure, A., Keita, S., Konare, S., Mounir, Z.M. & Bokar, H., 2023. Predicting groundwater level using climate change scenarios in the southern part of Mali. American Journal of Climate Change, 12(1), 21-38. Gharbia, S.S., Aish, A. & Pilla, F., 2015. Modelling potential impacts of climate change on groundwater of the Gaza coastal aquifer from ensemble of global climate model projections. Civil and Environmental Research, 7(2), 44-60. Goodarzi, M., Abedi‐Koupai, J. & Heidarpour, M., 2019. Investigating impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands and its resulting consequences on groundwater using CMIP5 models. Groundwater, 57(2), 259-268. Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J. & Piontek, F., 2014. A trend-preserving bias correction – The ISIMIP approach. Earth System Dynamics, 4(2), 219–236. Izady, A., Davary, K., Alizadeh, A., Ziaei, A.N., Alipoor, A., Joodavi, A. & Brusseau, M.L., 2014. A framework toward developing a groundwater conceptual model. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 7, 3611-3631. Khan, M.S., Coulibaly, P. & Dibike, Y., 2006. Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling methods using Canadian Global Climate Model predictors. Hydrological Processes: An International Journal, 20(14), 3085-3104. Kowsar, S., 2006. An empirical design of stilling basins for the artificial recharge of groundwater. Paper presented at the Management of aquifer recharge and water harvesting in arid and semi-arid regions of Asia. Proc. Reg. Workshop held in Yazd, IR Iran, under the auspices of UNESCO. Knutti, R. & Sedláček, J., 2013. Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Climate Change, 3(4), 369–373. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716 Mahjouri, N., Ghazban, F. & Ardestani, M., 2005. Groundwater quantity and quality management: a case study of Kashan aquifer, central Iran. Impacts of Global Climate Change, 1-10. Mastrocicco, M., Boz, B., Colombani, N., Carrer, G., Bonato, M. & Gumiero, B., 2014. Modelling groundwater residence time in a sub‐irrigated buffer zone. Ecohydrology, 7(3), 1054-1063. McDonald, M.G. & Harbaugh, A.W., 1988. A modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater flow model. U.S. Geological Survey. Mirzavand, M., Ghasemieh, H., Sadatinejad, S.J. & Bagheri, R., 2020. Delineating the source and mechanism of groundwater salinization in crucial declining aquifer using multi-chemo-isotopes approaches. Journal of Hydrology, 586, 124877. Mirzavand, M., Sadatinejad, S.J. & Kardan Moghaddam, H., 2025. Spatio-Temporal Optimization of Long-term Groundwater Monitoring Networks Using PSO Algorithm. Sustainable Earth Trends, 5(1), 1-12. Najafi, S., Sharafati, A. & Kardan Moghaddam, H., 2023. Impact of climate change adaptation strategies on groundwater resources: a case study of Sari-Neka coastal aquifer, Northern Iran. Environmental Earth Science, 82, 571. Narany, T.S., Aris, A.Z., Sefie, A. & Keesstra, S., 2017. Detecting and predicting the impact of land use changes on groundwater quality, a case study in Northern Kelantan, Malaysia. Science of the Total Environment, 599, 844-853. Rayne, T.W., Bradbury, K.R. & Muldoon, M.A., 2001. Delineation of capture zones for municipal wells in fractured dolomite, Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin, USA. Hydrogeology Journal, 9, 432-450. Schweizer, B., 2015. Darcy's law and groundwater flow modelling. https://doi.org/10.14760/SNAP-2015-007-EN. Taie Semiromi, M. & Koch, M., 2020. How do gaining and losing streams react to the combined effects of climate change and pumping in the Gharehsoo River Basin, Iran? Water Resources Research, 56(7), e2019WR025388. Wang, Q., Zhan, H. & Tang, Z., 2014. A new package in MODFLOW to simulate unconfined groundwater flow in sloping aquifers. Groundwater, 52(6), 924-935. Watterson, I. G., Webb, L., Bhend, J. & Hennessy, K., 2015. Changes in precipitation seasonality and extremes in a global warming scenario. Climate Dynamics, 45(3-4), 853–872. Wilby, R.L., Wigley, T., Conway, D., Jones, P., Hewitson, B., Main, J. & Wilks, D., 1998. Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: A comparison of methods. Water Resources Research, 34(11), 2995-3008. Wilby, R.L. & Wigley, T.M., 1997. Downscaling general circulation model output: A review of methods and limitations. Progress in Physical Geography, 21(4), 530-548. Wu, C., Huang, G. & Yu, H., 2015. Prediction of extreme floods based on CMIP5 climate models: A case study in the Beijiang River basin, South China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19(3), 1385-1399. Yidana, S.M., Vakpo, E.K., Sakyi, P.A., Chegbeleh, L.P. & Akabzaa, T.M., 2019. Groundwater–Lake water interactions: an evaluation of the impacts of climate change and increased abstractions on groundwater contribution to the Volta Lake, Ghana. Environmental Earth Sciences, 78, 1-16. Zhou, Y. & Li, W., 2011. A review of regional groundwater flow modeling. Geoscience Frontiers, 2(2), 205-214. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 13,532 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 296 |
||