روابط امارات متحده عربی و ترکیه: همکاری متوازن (2023-2011)
رهیافتهای سیاسی و بین المللی
مقاله 5 ، دوره 17، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 82 ، 1404، صفحه 88-110 625.99 K )
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.48308/piaj.2025.239260.1669 نویسنده
مهدی زیبائی*
چکیده چکیده مبسوط مقدمه و اهداف: اگر انقلابها را نقطه شروع تغییر نظم بینالمللی بدانیم، موج ناآرامیهای عربی زمینهساز ظهور نظم جدیدی شد که با وجود گذشت بیش از یک دهه، همچنان منطقه را تحتتاثیر قرار میدهد. این موج از اواخر 2010 در تونس آغاز شد و به سرعت در کشورهای عربی و حتی غیر عرب خاورمیانه گسترش یافت. اولین نتیجه این اعتراضات سرنگونی پنج حاکم در تونس، مصر، لیبی، یمن و در نهایت سوریه بود که منجر به تغییر بازیگران اصلی در روابط بینالملل خاورمیانه شد. این بدان معناست که برخی از کشورها مانند مصر، سوریه و اردن دیگر در مرکز معادلات قدرت منطقهای قرار ندارند، در حالی که برخی دیگر مانند امارات متحده عربی، ترکیه و قطر به عنوان بازیگران اصلی خاورمیانه پس از ناآرامیهای عربی ظاهر شدند. در این میان، رابطه امارات و ترکیه موضوع قابل توجهی است که باید مورد بررسی قرار گیرد، زیرا آنها بازیگران اصلی منطقه در این دوره جدید هستند. ناآرامیهای عربی تاثیر عمیقی بر تغییر روابط بین این دو بازیگر گذاشت. علیرغم تعلق هر دوی این بازیگران به جهان اسلام و سنی بودن، دیدگاههای متفاوت آنها در مورد نقش و اجرای اسلام سیاسی منجر به درگیری بین آنها شده است. این درگیری ژئوپلیتیکی از شرق مدیترانه تا لبه جنوبی خلیج فارس و از سوریه تا لیبی مشهود است.روش: پژوهش حاضر با بهرهگیری از نظریه موازنه قوا به بررسی روابط ترکیه و امارات در دوره پس از ناآرامیهای عربی میپردازد. تجزیه و تحلیل موازنه و همکاری متقابل آنها برای دسترسی به منابع ملی مربوطه ضروری است. روش تحقیق ترکیبی از دادههای کمی و تحلیل کیفی است. در بخش کمی، از دادههای آماری روابط اقتصادی، سیاسی و سایر روابط بین دو کشور برای شناسایی الگوها و روندها استفاده میشود. بخش کیفی از روش توصیفی-تحلیلی استفاده میکند تا با تحلیل محتوای اسناد، روابط دوستانه و خصمانه آنها را عمیقتر بررسی کند. منابع این مطالعه شامل کتب، مقالات علمی معتبر، پایاننامهها، وب سایتهای مرتبط و گزارشات بینالمللی موسسات تحقیقاتی است. تلاش شده است تا دادهها با رویکردی بیطرفانه تحلیل شوند. این رویکرد ترکیبی نتایج مستند و قابل اعتمادی را به دست میدهد که درک روابط امارات و ترکیه را افزایش میدهد و به طور مؤثرتری فرضیه تحقیق را آزمایش میکند.یافته ها: بررسیهای انجام شده نشان میدهد که در دوره پس از ناآرامیهای عربی، علیرغم جهتگیریهای متفاوت این دو بازیگر نسبت به تحولات منطقهای و نقش اسلام سیاسی در امور داخلی و خارجی، آنها با شناخت نیازهای متقابل، روابط اقتصادی نسبتا خوبی را حفظ کردهاند. در اصل، در چارچوب تئوری موازنه قوا، این بازیگران از نظر نفوذ ژئوپلیتیکی به عنوان محدودیت بر یکدیگر عمل کردهاند، در حالی که در بخش اقتصادی، بدون توجه به تقابلهای سیاسی، شرکای قابل اعتمادی بودهاند. ذکر این نکته ضروری است که این احساس نیاز متقابل منجر به تعدیل در منافع ملی مربوطه آنها شده است. تحلیل شاخصهای اقتصادی حاکی از تقویت همکاری بین این بازیگران در دوره 10 ساله پس از نارامیهای عربی است. این روابط از سال 2021 بهطور قابل توجهی گسترش یافته است و هدف آنها حصول حجم تبادل اقتصادی بیش از 30 میلیارد دلار در سالهای آینده است.نتیجهگیری: روابط متقابل این دو بازیگر نشان میدهد که سیاست در معنای واقعگرایانه آن بازتابی از انتخابهای عقلانی برای تحقق منافع ملی است. به عبارت دیگر، از منظر واقعبینانه، دولتها میتوانند و باید با یکدیگر همکاری کنند و در عین حال اختلاف داشته باشند. این همکاری و نیاز متقابل این فرصت را برای آنها فراهم میسازد تا در فضایی صمیمانه به مشکلات مربوطه رسیدگی کنند و راهحل بیابند. مروری بر تاریخ روابط میان امارات و ترکیه در دهه گذشته نشان میدهد که این دو بازیگر علیرغم خویشتنداری متقابل در معادلات منطقهای، همکاریهای اقتصادی سازنده نیز داشتهاند. امارات متحده عربی، با تشخیص آسیبپذیریهای ذاتی خود به عنوان یک کشور کوچک و کم جمعیت، به دنبال جلب حمایت ترکیه است. از سوی دیگر، ضعف اقتصادی و وابستگی ترکیه به سرمایهگذاریهای خارجی منجر به توسعه الگوی خاصی از روابط شده که نشاندهنده خویشتنداری متقابل از منظر سیاسی و همکاری متقابل از منظر اقتصادی است.کلیدواژهها
امارات ؛ ترکیه ؛ همکاری ؛ تقابل ؛ اقتصاد عنوان مقاله [English]UAE-Türkiye Relations: Balanced Cooperation (2011-2023) نویسندگان [English]
Mehdi Zibaei
چکیده [English]Extended Abstract Introduction : If revolutions are considered as catalysts for changes in the international order, then the wave of Arab uprisings marked the beginning of a new regional configuration—one that, more than a decade later, continues to shape the Middle East. This wave began in Tunisia in late 2010 and quickly spread across both Arab and non-Arab countries in the region. The initial outcome of these protests was the toppling of five regimes—in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and ultimately Syria—leading to a transformation in the constellation of actors in Middle Eastern international relations. Formerly central states such as Egypt, Syria, and Jordan gradually lost their dominant positions, while countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Türkiye, and Qatar emerged as key regional players. Among these developments, the evolving relationship between the UAE and Türkiye stands out as particularly significant, as both have become leading actors in this new geopolitical landscape. Despite sharing a common religious identity as Sunni-majority Muslim nations, the two states have often clashed due to their differing interpretations and applications of political Islam. This geopolitical rivalry has manifested across the region—from the Eastern Mediterranean to the southern Persian Gulf, and from Syria to Libya.Methods : This study applies the theory of the balance of power to examine the relationship between Türkiye and the UAE in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings. To understand their interactions and access to national resources, it is necessary to analyze both the dynamics of balance and instances of mutual cooperation. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative data with qualitative analysis. The quantitative component involves statistical data related to economic, political, and other forms of bilateral engagement to identify patterns and trends. The qualitative component uses a descriptive-analytical method to explore episodes of both cooperation and conflict, drawing on content analysis of primary documents. Sources include academic books, peer-reviewed articles, theses, credible websites, and international reports from research institutions. Every effort has been made to analyze the data impartially and without bias. This hybrid methodology produces well-documented and credible insights into the UAE–Türkiye relationship and enables a more rigorous testing of the study’s hypothesis.Results and Discussion : Research findings indicate that, despite diverging approaches to regional developments and differing attitudes toward political Islam in both domestic and foreign policy, Türkiye and the UAE have maintained relatively strong economic relations by recognizing and responding to mutual needs. Within the framework of the balance of power theory, the two countries have acted as geopolitical counterweights to each other, while simultaneously forging pragmatic economic partnerships that transcend their political differences. This mutual dependency has led to notable recalibrations in national interests. Economic indicators point to a steady strengthening of cooperation over the decade following the Arab uprisings. Since 2021, these relations have expanded considerably, with both countries setting ambitious goals for bilateral trade, targeting an exchange exceeding $30 billion in the near future.Conclusion : The trajectory of UAE–Türkiye relations demonstrates that political realism views international politics as the outcome of rational choices aimed at securing national interests. In this realist framework, states can—and often do—cooperate economically even while disagreeing politically. This pragmatic approach, based on mutual needs, creates opportunities to address shared challenges in a constructive atmosphere. A review of the past decade reveals that the UAE and Türkiye have engaged in consistent and constructive economic cooperation, even while acting as mutual constraints in regional geopolitics. Acknowledging its vulnerabilities as a small, sparsely populated state, the UAE has sought to benefit from Türkiye’s regional capabilities. Conversely, Türkiye’s economic fragility and dependence on foreign investment have encouraged it to develop a relationship with the UAE characterized by political restraint and economic collaboration. This evolving model reflects a broader pattern in international relations, where states balance competition with cooperation in pursuit of long-term strategic objectives.کلیدواژهها [English]
Emirates, Türkiye, cooperation, confrontation, economy
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(2022), After a Divorce, a Frosty Entente: Türkiye 's Rapprochement with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). Available at: https://www.ifri.org/en/papers/after-divorce-frosty-entente-Türkiye s-rapprochement-united-arab-emirates-and-saudi-arabia - Kara, B. (2023), UAE to open to third countries with Türkiye. TR Monitor. Available at: https://www.trmonitor.net/uae-to-open-to-third-countries-with-Türkiye / - Kazemi Dobakhshari, A., Zibaee, M., & Sarkhil, B. (2021), New UAE foreign policy in West Asia. Security Horizons, 14(52), 207-229 (In Persian). - Nsour, M. (2019), Economic Cooperation between the United Arab Emirates and Türkiye. Arab Law Quarterly. 33(1), 5-34. - Little, Richard. (2010), The Evolution of the Balance of Power Theories. Translated and reviewed by Gholamali Chagnizadeh. Tehran: Tehran Abrar Contemporary Cultural Institute for International Studies and Research (In Persian). - Paksoy, Y. 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Available at: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.dcaf.ch/sites/default/files/publications/documents/The_Road_to_Stability11.11.2021.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjc-InR1OuKAxWm4jgGHfhoPb4QFnoECDMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3M0ChGuGcdNJDP6kuE004F - Barkey, H. J. (2020), The UAE-Israel Agreement Isn’t Only About Iran. There’s Also Türkiye. Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/article/uae-israel-agreement-isnt-only-about-iran-theres-also-Türkiye - Bishku, M. B. (2022), Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates: From Cooperation to Rivalry. Contemporary Review of the Middle East, 9(2), 184-199. https://doi.org/10.1177/23477989221078492 - Daily News. (2024), Türkiye seeks to boost trade with UAE to $40 billion. Available at: https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/gcc/turkiye-we-aim-to-increase-trading-with-uae-to-40bln-g4d5o9zf - Dehghani Firouz Abadi, S. J. and Pouresmaeili, N. 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Available at: https://www.trmonitor.net/uae-to-open-to-third-countries-with-Türkiye / - Kazemi Dobakhshari, A., Zibaee, M., & Sarkhil, B. (2021), New UAE foreign policy in West Asia. Security Horizons, 14(52), 207-229 (In Persian). - Nsour, M. (2019), Economic Cooperation between the United Arab Emirates and Türkiye. Arab Law Quarterly. 33(1), 5-34. - Little, Richard. (2010), The Evolution of the Balance of Power Theories. Translated and reviewed by Gholamali Chagnizadeh. Tehran: Tehran Abrar Contemporary Cultural Institute for International Studies and Research (In Persian). - Paksoy, Y. (2017), UAE allegedly funneled $3B to topple Erdoğan, Turkish government. Daily Sabah. Available at: https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2017/06/13/uae-allegedly-funneled-3b-to-topple-erdogan-turkish-government - Shokri, U. (2023), Strengthening Ties: UAE’s Investment in Türkiye ’s Offshore Wind and Turbine Sector. Emirates Policy Center (EPC). 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Available at: https://libyaherald.com/2022/07/libya-must-settle-its-us-4-bn-debts-with-turkish-companies-on-barter-basis-deik-head-karanfil/ - Akbulut, G. (2023), Strengthening Economic Ties Between Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates. Dış Politika Enstitüsü. Available at: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url =https:// foreignpolicy.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/STRENGTHENING-ECONOMIC-TIES-BETWEEN-TURKIYE-AND-THE-UNITED-ARAB-EMIRATES-.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjjz 7OU3OuKAxUpRjABHT_-H0AQFnoECBcQAQ&usg=AOvVaw36-pEk5o1rXmyQWs8kiYxU - Al Shami, I. (2022), Arab Tribes and Saudi Influence in Northeastern Syria. Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Available at: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/arab-tribes-and-saudi-influence-northeastern-syria - Aslanhan, U. (2023), BAE-Türkiye İş Forumunda "yatırımların ve iş birliklerinin artırılması" çağrısı, Anadolu Ajansı. Available at: https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/ekonomi/bae-turkiye-is-forumunda-yatirimlarin-ve-is-birliklerinin-artirilmasi-cagrisi/2949746# - Aydıntaşbaş, A. and Bianco, C. (2021), Useful enemies: How the Türkiye -UAE rivalry is remaking the Middle East. The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Available at: https://ecfr.eu/publication/useful-enemies-how-the-Türkiye -uae-rivalry-is-remaking-the-middle-east/ - Badi, E., Gallet, A. and Maggi R. (2021), The Road to Stability: Rethinking Security Sector Reform in Post-Conflict Libya. Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance. Available at: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.dcaf.ch/sites/default/files/publications/documents/The_Road_to_Stability11.11.2021.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjc-InR1OuKAxWm4jgGHfhoPb4QFnoECDMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3M0ChGuGcdNJDP6kuE004F - Barkey, H. J. (2020), The UAE-Israel Agreement Isn’t Only About Iran. There’s Also Türkiye. Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/article/uae-israel-agreement-isnt-only-about-iran-theres-also-Türkiye - Bishku, M. B. (2022), Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates: From Cooperation to Rivalry. Contemporary Review of the Middle East, 9(2), 184-199. https://doi.org/10.1177/23477989221078492 - Daily News. (2024), Türkiye seeks to boost trade with UAE to $40 billion. Available at: https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/gcc/turkiye-we-aim-to-increase-trading-with-uae-to-40bln-g4d5o9zf - Dehghani Firouz Abadi, S. J. and Pouresmaeili, N. (2018), Turkey's Foreign Policy in the Middle East: Conservative, Revisionist, and Ideological Foundations. Foreign Relations, 10(2), 75-104 (In Persian). - England, A. and Samson, A. (2023), UAE and Türkiye sign multibillion-dollar agreements. Financial Times. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/63c1282c-ccc1-43d6-b4bf-240b11255676 - Fenton-Harvey, J. (2020), The UAE's hidden hand in Tunisia's political crisis. The New Arab. Available at: https://www.newarab.com/analysis/uaes-hidden-hand-tunisias-political-crisis - Gallopin, J. B. (2020), The Great Game of the UAE and Saudi Arabia in Sudan. Pomeps Studies 40. Available at: https://pomeps.org/pomeps-studies-40-africa-and-the-middle-east-beyond-the-divides - Ghasemi, Farhad. (2012), Principles of International Relations. Tehran: Mizan Publications (In Persian). - Ghulamnia, H., & Pirmuhammadi, S. (2021), Transformation of the Regional Politics of United Arab Emirates: Muhammad Ben Zayed’s Approach. Security Horizons, 13(49), 115-145 (In Persian), - Golmohammadi, V., Sajjadpour, S. M. K. and Shafaiee, M. M. (2016), Erdoganism and Understanding the Turkish Middle East Policy. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 19(73), 69-92 (In Persian), - Habibi, N. (2023). Türkiye ’s Economic Crisis and Erdoğan’s Multiple Rapprochement Initiatives. Middle East Brief. No. 152 - Hearst, D. (2016), Exclusive: UAE 'funnelled money to Turkish coup plotters'. Middle East Eye. Available at: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-uae-funnelled-money-turkish-coup-plotters - Jabbour, J. J. (2022), After a Divorce, a Frosty Entente: Türkiye 's Rapprochement with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). Available at: https://www.ifri.org/en/papers/after-divorce-frosty-entente-Türkiye s-rapprochement-united-arab-emirates-and-saudi-arabia - Kara, B. (2023), UAE to open to third countries with Türkiye. TR Monitor. Available at: https://www.trmonitor.net/uae-to-open-to-third-countries-with-Türkiye / - Kazemi Dobakhshari, A., Zibaee, M., & Sarkhil, B. (2021), New UAE foreign policy in West Asia. Security Horizons, 14(52), 207-229 (In Persian). - Nsour, M. (2019), Economic Cooperation between the United Arab Emirates and Türkiye. Arab Law Quarterly. 33(1), 5-34. - Little, Richard. (2010), The Evolution of the Balance of Power Theories. Translated and reviewed by Gholamali Chagnizadeh. Tehran: Tehran Abrar Contemporary Cultural Institute for International Studies and Research (In Persian). - Paksoy, Y. (2017), UAE allegedly funneled $3B to topple Erdoğan, Turkish government. Daily Sabah. Available at: https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2017/06/13/uae-allegedly-funneled-3b-to-topple-erdogan-turkish-government - Shokri, U. (2023), Strengthening Ties: UAE’s Investment in Türkiye ’s Offshore Wind and Turbine Sector. Emirates Policy Center (EPC). Available at: https://epc.ae/en/details/brief/strengthening-ties-uae-s-investment-in-Türkiye -s-offshore-wind-and-turbine-sector - Soylu, R. (2020), Türkiye will hold the UAE accountable at right place and time: Defence minister. Middle East Eye. Available at: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/Türkiye -uae-accountable-defence-minister - Turak, N. (2019), Dubai's largest lender bags nearly half a billion in savings on its Turkish bank acquisition thanks to the lira drop. CNBC. Available at: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/03/dubai-emirates-nbd-acquires-turkish-bank-from-russia.html - Yesil B. (2023), Global Populism: Its Roots in Media and Religion| Mediating Muslim Victimhood: An Analysis of Religion and Populism in International Communication. International Journal of Communication, 17. 2904-2924. - Zaptia, S. (2022), Libya must settle its US$ 4 bn debts with Turkish companies on barter basis: DEIK head Karanfil. The Libya Herald. Available at: https://libyaherald.com/2022/07/libya-must-settle-its-us-4-bn-debts-with-turkish-companies-on-barter-basis-deik-head-karanfil/
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