تجزیه اثرات بازگشتی ناشی از افزایش کارایی انرژی در ایران: رهیافت الگوی تعادل عمومی محاسبهپذیر | ||
| اقتصاد و الگو سازی | ||
| مقاله 4، دوره 10، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 39، آذر 1398، صفحه 85-109 اصل مقاله (1.11 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.48308/ecoj.10.3.99 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| فاطمه رفیعی* 1؛ منوچهر عسگری2؛ حمیدرضا ارباب3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد نفت و گاز دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3دانشیار گروه اقتصاد بازرگانی دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| یکی از روشهای کاهش مصرف انرژی، بهبود کارایی انرژی در فعالیتهای مختلف اقتصادی است. اما میزان صرفهجویی انرژی به دلیل وجود اثرات بازگشتی ممکن است محدود شود. یکی از چالشهای محاسبه اثرات بازگشتی، تجزیه اثرات بازگشتی به اثرات بازگشتی مستقیم و اثرات بازگشتی در گسترده اقتصاد است تا بتوان تأثیر افزایش کارایی را به صورت مستقیم و با درنظرگرفتن تمام تطابقات بازارها از یکدیگر تفکیک کرد. هدف مقاله حاضر ارائه الگو نظری برای تجزیه اثرات بازگشتی و محاسبه آن در فعالیتهای مختلف با استفاده از الگوی تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه است. براساس نتایج الگوسازی و با استفاده از دادههای ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی سال 1390، اثر بازگشتی برای افزایش یک درصدی کارایی برق و سوختهای فسیلی به ترتیب 1/90 و 8/72 درصد است. اثرات بازگشتی گسترده اقتصاد نیز تفاوت چندانی با اثرات بازگشتی مستقیم و غیرمستقیم ندارد، چرا که خانوارها به دلیل سهم پایین هزینه انرژی از مخارج خانوار به افزایش کارایی در این بخش چندان واکنش نشان نمیدهند و بنابراین اثر بازگشتی گسترده اقتصاد 9/89 و 5/72 است. اثرات بازگشتی بالای مشاهده شده در اقتصاد ایران سبب خواهد شد اثرگذاری سیاست افزایش کارایی بر کاهش مصرف انرژی محدود شود. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| کارایی انرژی؛ تجزیه اثرات بازگشتی؛ الگوی تعادل عمومی محاسبهپذیر | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Decomposition of Rebound Effect in Iran: The Approach of Computable General Equilibrium | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Fatemeh Rafiei1؛ Manouchehr Asgari2؛ Hamidreza Arbab3 | ||
| 1Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| One way to reduce energy consumption is to improve energy efficiency in various economic activities. But energy savings may be limited by the rebound effects. One of the challenges in calculating the rebound effects is the decomposition of the rebound effects to the direct rebound effects and the rebound effects across the economy so that the effect of increasing efficiency can be distinguished directly and considering all market adaptations. The purpose of this paper is to provide a theoretical model for the analysis of rebound effects and its calculation in different activities using the general equilibrium model. Based on the results of the modeling and using the data of the Social Accounting Matrix in 2011, the direct rebound effect by 1% increasing the efficiency of electricity and fossil fuels is 90.1% and 72.8%, respectively. The economy wide effect is not much different from the direct effect as households do not react much to the increase in efficiency in this sector due to the low share of energy costs from household expenditures. Is. The high rebound effect observed in the Iranian economy will limit the effectiveness of the policy of increasing efficiency on reducing energy consumption. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Energy Efficiency, Decomposition of Rebound Effects, Computable General Equilibrium Model, Electricity and Fossil Fuels | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
- Brookes, L. (1990). The greenhouse effect: the fallacies in the energy efficiency solution. Energy Policy, 18, 199-201. - Dufournaud, C.M., Quinn, J.T. & Harrington, J.J. (1994). An applied general equilibrium (AGE) analysis of a policy designed to reduce the household consumption of wood in the Sudan. Resource and Energy Economics, 16, 69-90. - Evans, J. & Haunt, L. (2009). International Handbook on the Economics of Energy. Edward Elgar Publishing; 12764. - Greening, L., Greene, D. L., & Difiglio, C. (2000). Energy Efficiency and Consumption-The Rebound Effect – A Survey. Energy Policy, 28, 389-401. - Grepperud, S. & Rasmussen, I. (2004), A general equilibrium assessment of rebound effects. Energy Economics, 26, 261-282. - Hanley N., McGregor, P.G., Swales, J.K. & Turner K.(2009). Do increase in energy efficiency improve environmental quality and sustainability? Ecol Econ, 68, 692–709. - Harrison, G. W, & Kriström, B. (1998), Carbon Emissions and the conomic Costs of Transport Policy in Sweden, in Roson, R, and Small, K. A. (eds). Environment and Transport in Economic Modelling, Amsterdam: Kluwer Academic Press. - Herring, H. (1999). Does energy efficiency save energy? The debate and its consequences. Applied Energy, (63) 209-226. - Hill, M. (2001). Essays on environmental policy analysis: computable general equilibrium approaches applied to Sweden. - Jevons, W. S. (1865). The Coal Question-Can Britain Survive. First published in 1865, reprinted by Macmillan in 1906. (Relevant extracts appear in Environment and Change, February 1974.) - Kafaie, M., Nejadaghaeianvash, P. (2016). Estimation and Comparison of Energy Efficiency in Iran’s Economic Sectors. Journal of Economics and Modeling, 7(27), 97-122 (In Persian). - Khazzoom, D.J. (1980). Economic implications of mandated efficiency in standards for household appliances, Energy Journal, 1, 21-39. - Khiabani, N. (2017). A Dynamic CGE Model for Evaluation of Energy Policies: Evidence from Iran. Iranian Journal of Economic research, 21(69), 1-46. doi: 10.22054/ijer.2017.7502 (In Persian). - Khiabani,N.(2008). Computable General Equilibruim (CGE) study of the impact of an increase in the price if energy source on the Iranian economy. Energy Economic Review, 5(16), 1-34 (In Persian). - Khoshkalam Khosroshahi, M. (2014). Investigating the Rebound Effects from Improved Efficiency of Gasoil and Gasoline in Iran by Focusing on Transportation Sector: Computable General Equilibrium Approach. Iranian Energy Economics, 3(11), 159-194 (In Persian). - Khoshkalam khosroshahi, M. (2018). Decomposition of rebound effect of improving gasoline consumption efficiency into substitution and output effects with emphasis on transportation sector: CGE model. Economic Development Policy, 6(1), 49-67. doi: 10.22051/edp.2019.25609.1205 (In Persian). - Koesler, S. Swales K. & Turner K.(2016) ,International spillover and rebound effects from increased energy efficiency in Germany. Energy Economics, 54, 444–52. - Ningjing Wang & Weixian Wei (2019) China’s regional rebound effect based on modelling multi-regional CGE. Applied Economics, 51, 53, 5712-5726. - Salimian, Z., Bazzazan, F., Mousavi, M. (2017). Rebound Effects of Improved Energy Efficiency in Energy Intensive Industries: An Intertemporal Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. Iranian Energy Economics, 6(21), 163-200. doi: 10.22054/jiee.2017.7976 (In Persian). - Semboja, H.H.H. (1994). The effects of an increase in energy efficiency on the Kenyan economy. Energy Policy, 22(3), 217-225. - Sorrell, S. & Dimitriopolous, J. (2007). The rebound effect: microeconomic definitions, limitations and extensions. Ecological Economics, 65 (3), 636-649. - Turner K. (2009). Negative rebound and disinvestment effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the UK economy. Energy Econ, 31, 648–66. - Van Es, G., De Groot, A., Velthuisen, J., & van Leeuwen, M., (1998). A description of the SEO Computable General Equilibrium Model. SEO Report, 477. Amsterdam, Foundation for Economic Research. - Washida, T. (2004). Economy-wide model of rebound effect for environmental efficiency. Topic 1-Opening Session, 292. - Zhou, M., Liu, Y., Feng, S., Liu, Y., & Lu, Y. (2018). Decomposition of rebound effect: An energy-specific, general equilibrium analysis in the context of China. Applied Energy, 221, 280-298. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 1,220 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 951 |
||