بهبود انتشار نوآوری از طریق تحلیل عملیاتی مدلسازی عامل‌بنیان | ||
| چشم‌انداز مدیریت صنعتی | ||
| مقاله 4، دوره 10، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 37، فروردین 1399، صفحه 117-142 اصل مقاله (841.5 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.52547/jimp.10.1.117 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| احسان ابوالفتحی1؛ عباس طلوعی اشلقی* 2؛ محمد رضا حمیدی زاده3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 2استاد، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 3استاد، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف این پژوهش شناخت و معرفی روشی برای بهبود انتشار نوآوری با استفاده از مدلسازی عامل‌بنیان می باشد. و در این رهگذر تحلیلی عملیاتی برای ایجاد مدلسازی عامل‌محور ارائه و بررسی گردید. مدل عامل‌محور این پژوهش در ترکیب با مدل انتشار باس ایجاد شد. در این مدل ورودی‌ها شامل احتمال پذیرش به‌واسطه رسانه‌های جمعی و احتمال پذیرش به‌واسطه گفت‌وگوهای کلامی است که با بهره‌گیری از مدل انتشار باس تخمین زده شده‌اند. خروجی مدل نیز تعداد کل پذیرندگان نوآوری در هر گام زمانی در بازار بالقوه است که پس از اجرای مدل، انطباق این داده‌ها با داده‌های دنیای واقعی تأیید گردید. برای ساخت مدل از داده‌های واقعی مربوط به انتشار نوآوری (انتشار تلویزیون) در ایران و برای توسعه مدل از ساختار شبکه‌ای ترجیحی استفاده شد. پس از برپاسازی مدل، مباحث مربوط به اعتبارسنجی و اعتباربخشی آن با انجام آزمای‌شهای مربوطه و براساس گام‌های ارائه‌شده در تحلیل عملیاتی مدلسازی عامل‌بنیان لحاظ گردید و روشی که برای بهبود انتشار نوآوری معرفی شده است در قالب 10 سناریو موردبررسی و آزمون قرار گرفت. پس از تحلیل خروجی‌های این سناریوها، روش پیشنهادی در بهبود انتشار نوآوری، به‌ویژه برای غلبه بر تأخیر اولیه در پذیرش نوآوری مؤثر تشخیص داده شد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تحلیل عملیاتی؛ مدلسازی مبتنی بر عامل؛ بازاریابی حوزه انتشار نوآوری؛ مدل باس؛ نوآوران مصنوعی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Enhancing Diffusion of Innovation through Operational Analysis of Agent-Based Modelling | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Ehsan Abolfathi1؛ Abbas Toloie Eshlaghy2؛ Mohammad Reza Hamidi Zadeh3 | ||
| 1Ph.D Student, Department of industrial management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad university, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 2Professor, Department of industrial management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad university, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 3Professor, Shahid Beheshti university. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The purpose of this study is to introduce a method to improve innovation diffusion by using agent-based modeling. In this regard, an operational analysis to create agent-based modeling is investigated. agent-based model of this research is carried out in combination with the bass model. in this model, inputs include advertising effects and word-of-mouth effects estimated using the bass diffusion model. output of the model is also the total number of innovation adopters at each time step in the potential market that has been validated after the model has been correspond to real data (diffusion of television in Iran). to be more correspondent to real-world, the agent-based model is developed by preferential attachment-based network. after creating the model, the validation and verification were carried out by experiments and the operational analysis of the agent-based modeling. after model validation, we examine our method (using artificial innovators) for improving the diffusion of innovation. after validating the model, the proposed method for improving innovation diffusion through ten scenarios is investigated. in addition, a proposed criterion for analyzing the output of the innovation diffusion is presented, which is used to analyze the outputs. after the analysis, the method of artificial innovators was effective. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Operational Analysis, Agent-Based Modeling, Diffusion of Innovation Marketing, Bass Model, Artificial Innovators | ||
| مراجع | ||
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